OUR DAILY THREAD: The Saudis Own Him
Trump's Oily Presidency Returns
THE SET-UP: Trump recently announced a roll-back of fuel economy standards in a bid to lower the skyrocketing cost of new cars. But the move is about more than the affordability “hoax” Trump says the Democrats are perpetrating on the American people. It’s just his latest in a series of moves he’s made to prolong the dominance of hydrocarbons and, therefore, the dominance of the Saudi-led OPEC-Plus cartel. - jp
The International Energy Agency (IEA) dropped a major reassessment of the oil market just a few days before the 2025 UN Climate Change Conference began Belém, Brazil.
On November 12th, the IEA predicted global demand for oil will continue to rise until 2050. Just two years ago, the IEA projected global demand for oil could “peak” as early as 2028 or 2030.
That’s quite a shift.
The IEA says their radical reassessment reflects a switch in their projection model. For the last five years they’ve based their projections on the “stated policies scenario.” That scenario assumes governments will implement their stated energy- and climate-related policies and fulfill their international agreements.
Now, after five years of projections based on “stated policies,” they’ve switched back to the “current policies scenario,” which simply means they’ve looked at various nations’ “current policies and regulations” and, per S&P Global, they’ve projected…
…global oil consumption will continue to increase through 2050, with oil prices expected to exceed $100/b by that year.
…and…
…global oil demand, including biofuels, could increase from 100 million barrels in 2024 to 105 million barrels by 2035, and may rise further to 113 million barrels by 2050.
In other words, the world can forget about the goals outlined in the Paris Agreement. Humanity will not limit the rise in global temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. And there is zero chance of getting to Net Zero by 2050. Simply put, the IEA just confirmed that “current policies” make a superheated-world inevitable.
The Wall Street Journal offered a specific example of how a current policy trumping a stated policy altered the IEA’s outlook:
[T]he share of EVs in total car sales is expected to plateau after 2035 due to insufficient policy support in some regions, with the exception of China and Europe. This slowdown is set to further drive oil demand growth into the 2030s and beyond.
“In some regions” except China and Europe? Well, that’s one way of saying “the United States” without explicitly saying it. The same is true of the “insufficient policy support” for EVs. It’s an obvious reference to Trump’s wide-ranging effort to derail the wide-spread adoption of EVs. The fact that the IEA characterized China and Europe as notable exceptions does seem to implicate the United States as the main reason for their radical recalibration of peak demand.
But you don’t need to read between the IEA’s lines to see that Trump’s wide-ranging crackdown on “green energy” has almost singlehandedly rescued hydrocarbons from the looming specter of peak demand. If nothing else, he’s been crystal clear about his intentions.
And he has been since day one.
He declared an unsubstantiated “national energy emergency.” on Inauguration Day and has since used those unduly expanded powers to rewrite regulations, to scuttle numerous in-progress renewable energy projects and to specifically halt, claw-back or redirect the Inflation Reduction Act’s climate-related funds.
When it was passed in 2022, the Biden Administration touted the IRA as “the most significant climate legislation in U.S. history” and it no doubt contributed to the IEA’s “stated policies” assessment that peak demand was approaching … fast.
It was no small thing, either.
Peak demand is the inflection point after which demand for oil begins its irrevocable decline. Revenue declines. Investment declines. And OPEC’s power declines with it. The IEA’s IRA-stoked projections helped set that process in motion, dampening the outlook for oil in the world’s markets and among investors.
Unsurprisingly, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman’s has been a particularly vocal critic of the IEA’s analysis:
Throughout the years, the minister has maintained that “hydrocarbons are here to stay,” emphasizing that Saudi Arabia would continue expanding its production capacity.
…and…
At an OPEC+ meeting in June 2021, he described the IEA’s scenario as “a sequel to the movie La La Land,” questioning why anyone should take it seriously.
…and finally…
Even amid intensifying global pressure to scale back fossil fuels, the minister insisted on pushing ahead with Saudi Arabia’s long-term production plans. In 2023, he reiterated that hydrocarbons “are here to stay,” affirming the Kingdom’s ambition to remain one of the world’s lowest-cost and most versatile energy suppliers, including oil, gas, renewables, and hydrogen.
The Saudi Energy Minister’s blustery defiance about the future of hydrocarbons (“here to stay”) came at a crucial moment for the Kingdom.
Biden’s Presidency, however enfeebled, began distributing the IRA’s funds and that infusion threatened to deepen green energy’s roots. Solar panels would be installed and EVs sold at the same time Americans were becoming more accepting of climate science as they became more personally acquainted with the extreme weather. Add skyrocketing home insurance into the mix with crippling heatwaves and catastrophic floods and you’ve got a rationale for reaching peak demand by the end of the decade.
Perhaps more daunting than the loss of oil-related profits from a US-led transition is the potential for US military disengagement. This cannot be underestimated. US Taxpayers have long-subsidized the security of the Gulf petrostates and guaranteed the stability of key shipping routes for oil. US Empire is the guarantor of the world’s hydrocarbon-based system. Now imagine an world where the United States has no good reason to keep its 5th Fleet headquartered in Bahrain or to maintain the massive Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.
What if the US succeeded diminishing the hydrocarbons portion of its energy mix within ten years? Or even fifteen? If it triggers a precipitous decline in demand and the world is increasingly buying Chinese solar panel instead of Saudi crude … would the US go to war to protect the Saudis’ plastic feedstock business?
These potential threats to OPEC-Plus could explain why the Saudis responded to the IRA’s passage in August of 2022 by deploying their best weapon—artificial scarcity—at the start of October:
OPEC+ said Wednesday that it will slash oil production by 2 million barrels per day, the biggest cut since the start of the pandemic, in a move that threatens to push gasoline prices higher just weeks before US midterm elections.
In fact, the Saudis punished Biden’s somewhat less deferential approach to oil throughout his inflation-addled Presidency. Remember those “I Did That” stickers that suddenly appeared on gas pumps around the country? The Saudis were, along with their OPEC-Plus partners, the real culprits.
Prior to Russia’s participation in OPEC-Plus—which conveniently began just a few weeks after Trump was elected in 2016—the Russians could dampen OPEC’s moves by doing the opposite. If, for instance, OPEC cut production, the Russians could ramp-up to fill the void … and vice-versa. That’s why Russia’s commitment to coordinate production quotas was a big win for the Saudis. It magnified the Saudi-led cartel’s ability to weaponize artificial scarcity in an oil market brimming with capacity.
Predictably, the Biden Administration’s lackluster communications team failed to make that case. Instead, their inadequacy opened the door for Trump to shape the narrative. He blamed the price spike on Biden and the Green New Deal and on the “hoax” of climate change. He also blamed a radical “Leftist" agenda for shutting down domestic oil and gas production. It wasn’t true, but it didn’t matter as long as the Saudis restricted the flow of oil. If nothing else, it mostly kept the price north of the per-barrel break-even price while simultaneously hampering the Biden’s efforts to stanch inflation. Trump made sure it hurt Biden politically.
Predictably, the Saudis finally opened the spigot for Trump. Saudi oil exports have since spiked and the price of gas is coming down.
That’s not a coincidence.
The Saudis are heavily invested in the “success” of Trump’s Presidency. Trump now needs the price of energy to come down, and the Saudis are obliging … thus rewarding the single greatest lobbyist the Saudis have ever had in Washington. It’s a relationship that began during his first run for the White House and it quickly blossomed after the results of the 2016 election rolled-in.
For the Saudis, his well-compensated efforts came in the knick of time.
Before Trump won in 2016, Obama’s fracking policy had driven the price of oil below $30 per barrel. That was well-below the break-even price for a barrel of Saudi crude and it was crippling the Kingdom (along with Iran, Venezuela and Russia). At one point, they struggled to pay their civil servants. We’re talking about Saudi Arabia, folks.
At the same time, the lid was coming off 9/11 and it was becoming clear that Saudi officials played key roles in the plot. It was during that moment of weakness that an emboldened Obama made an audacious play to “rebalance” the Persian Gulf. Iran was also getting hit by fracking’s downward pressure on the price of oil … which translated into leverage for negotiating the Iran Nuke Deal (JCPOA). Iran needed oil revenue and the JCPOA put them on a long path toward normalization. A normalized Iran, armed with the “world’s biggest gas field,” could easily challenge the comparatively gas-poor Saudis’ energy dominance. If, in the process, normalization clipped the Kingdom’s wings, it would be a win-win for Obama’s long-term vision of a Washington unencumbered by the Saudi millstone.
The relationship soured quickly and the Saudis let it be known, too, when the Kingdom’s leadership refused to greet Obama on the tarmac during his final visit.
Then Trump won.
His first overseas trip? He went sword-dancing with the Saudi sheikhs. And he was awarded the Collar of the Order of King Abdulaziz. According to Saudipedia, it’s one of the two highest honors doled-out by the King.
And what did he do to deserve it?
Just by winning he’d already ensured that Hillary Clinton would not be in a position to continue Obama’s rebalancing of the Persian Gulf region. His win also guaranteed the functional end of the JCPOA and, therefore, Iran’s oil and substantial reserves of natural gas would be largely kept off an already oversupplied market.
It was a significant return on investment … not just for the Saudis, but also for their Emirati partners and for their brand new OPEC-Plus junior partners in Moscow. At the time, their partnership was obscured by the all-consuming daily scramble to break stories on “Russian interference.” The news media and Congressional Democrats focused all their energy on chasing down red herrings (like Carter Page) the Russians dragged across the path from Moscow to Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. Given the sloppy detectability of the Russian “interference campaign,” their “interference” seems more and more like a counter-intelligence operation designed to bog-down and humiliate the US Intelligence community.
If so, mission accomplished.
It also obscured the potentially far more influential investment in Trump’s campaign by the Saudis and Emiratis. In particular, there was a second Trump Tower meeting that may have played a bigger role than the infamous Russian-led Trump Tower meeting most are familiar with. Here is a key excerpt from a New York Times report in 2018:
Three months before the 2016 election, a small group gathered at Trump Tower to meet with Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son. One was an Israeli specialist in social media manipulation. Another was an emissary for two wealthy Arab princes. The third was a Republican donor with a controversial past in the Middle East as a private security contractor.
The meeting was convened primarily to offer help to the Trump team, and it forged relationships between the men and Trump insiders that would develop over the coming months — past the election and well into President Trump’s first year in office, according to several people with knowledge of their encounters.
Erik Prince, the private security contractor and the former head of Blackwater, arranged the meeting, which took place on Aug. 3, 2016. The emissary, George Nader, told Donald Trump Jr. that the princes who led Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were eager to help his father win election as president. The social media specialist, Joel Zamel, extolled his company’s ability to give an edge to a political campaign; by that time, the firm had already drawn up a multimillion-dollar proposal for a social media manipulation effort to help elect Mr. Trump.
The company, which employed several Israeli former intelligence officers, specialized in collecting information and shaping opinion through social media.
It is unclear whether such a proposal was executed, and the details of who commissioned it remain in dispute. But Donald Trump Jr. responded approvingly, according to a person with knowledge of the meeting, and after those initial offers of help, Mr. Nader was quickly embraced as a close ally by Trump campaign advisers — meeting frequently with Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, and Michael T. Flynn, who became the president’s first national security adviser. At the time, Mr. Nader was also promoting a secret plan to use private contractors to destabilize Iran, the regional nemesis of Saudi Arabia and the Emirates.
After Mr. Trump was elected, Mr. Nader paid Mr. Zamel a large sum of money, described by one associate as up to $2 million. There are conflicting accounts of the reason for the payment, but among other things, a company linked to Mr. Zamel provided Mr. Nader with an elaborate presentation about the significance of social media campaigning to Mr. Trump’s victory.
Although the extent of Saudi/Emirati “interference” still remains “unclear,” their nexus-like role came into clearer focus in the Mueller Report through some completely overlooked passages connecting Jared Kushner to Kirill Dmitriev. Dmitriev is close to Putin. So close, in fact, that he’s been in charge of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund. That fund has partnered with Saudis and invested side-by-side with the UAE. Dmitriev has long cultivated ties with various Saudis, but he’s particularly friendly with the UAE’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ). Mohammed bin Zayed was rumored to have exerted influence on King Salman’s decision to elevate Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) to next in line for the throne. Of the two, MBZ is the behind-the-scenes power broker who, according to a 2020 Aljazeera profile, is “happy to let MBS have centre stage while he is in the wings, watching, working and manipulating.” No doubt, MBZ’s mentorship of MBS and his connection to Dmitriev were instrumental in hashing out the OPEC-Plus agreement in the weeks after Trump won.
But, as I wrote in 2019, it doesn’t end there…
… because just over a week before Trump’s inauguration, Dmitriev met with Blackwater founder Erik Prince in a now infamous get-together in the Seychelles … which, based on the Mueller Report, Prince has lied about repeatedly. The unofficial Trump advisor, brother to future education Secretary Betsy DeVos and wannabe Overlord of Afghanistan also met with the UAE’s strangely ubiquitous MBZ in the Seychelles. The meeting was arranged by long-time Middle East fixer and convicted pedophile George Nader, and it was arranged in consultation with Steve Bannon. Prince briefed Bannon after the meeting … a meeting which Prince seems to have bungled.
That means the characters from the second, lesser-known Trump Tower meeting before the election came together with MBZ and Dmitriev in the Seychelles after the election to reportedly open a “back channel” line of communication between Moscow and the incoming administration. According to a memo reviewed by The Daily Beast in 2018, the MBZ-brokered meeting…
….Prince and Dmitriev discussed a range of possible collaborations, including a military effort to take out specific ISIS leaders in Syria, nuclear and chemical nonproliferation, and a perplexing plan for RDIF to invest money in the U.S. Rust Belt, “creating real jobs for hard hit area with high employment.” The proposals echo ideas that have been raised by Moscow more officially.
Obviously, though, that “back channel” was already open and it ran, in part, through Kushner family friend Rick Gerson:
According to a report in the New York Times, Jared has been friends with Gerson’s brother Mark “for more than a decade” and Mark was “an early investor” in “a real estate technology company founded by Mr. Kushner and his brother, Josh.” The icing on that filial layer cake is that “Kushner’s family foundation” has “donated tens of thousands of dollars to an Israeli medical aid group led by Mark Gerson.”
And although Gerson “stated he had no formal role in the transition and had no involvement in the Trump Campaign” (Mueller Report, Vol. 1, Page 156) … and that he’d only had “occasional casual discussions about the campaign with Kushner” (Vol. 1, Page 157) … for some reason he took on a larger role after the election by “arranging meetings for transition officials with former UK prime minister Tony Blair and a UAE delegation led by Crown Prince Mohammed” (Vol. 1, Page 157).
And there’s MBZ again.
His Where’s Waldo-like presence in this story may have more to do with his investment in MBS than in Trump’s first campaign. If he wanted to ensure his mentee’s elevation to Crown Prince (which happened in 2017), what better way to do so than to solidify MBS’ relationship with the incoming administration?
And that’s what happened.
The full support of Trump’s White House reinforced the soon-to-be-anointed Crown Prince’s position and MBS’ fast-friendship with Kushner played a key role throughout Trump’s first term. Arms were sold and praise was offered. Trump’s embrace was particularly helpful during MBS’ his epic shakedown (or sheikhdown) of wealthy Saudis at the Ritz Carlton. Trump went on Twitter after the shakedown hit the news and declared:
“I have great confidence in King Salman and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, they know exactly what they are doing. Some of those they are harshly treating have been ‘milking’ their country for years!”
Trump and Kushner would be richly rewarded for consigning his impunity … particularly after MBS followed-up by having Jamal Khashoggi dismembered.
Trump’s handling of the incident may have cemented their bond.
After Trump lost in 2020, Kushner received a cool $2 billion “investment” in his firm. For Trump, the Saudis served-up a cold dish of revenge by upending the PGA with LIV Golf. The PGA snubbed Trump in the wake of January 6th when they cancelled the 2022 PGA Championship at Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey. LIV Golf used Trump-hosted tournaments to garnish his plate with cash. And there was more … a lot more … where that came from.
Now Trump is delivering yet again.
He delivered ROI almost immediately upon re-taking office when he declared his phony national energy emergency and went scorched earth on the “current policies” that contributed to the IEA’s reassessment of oil’s lifespan.
But that’s not all.
He’s also erasing references to climate from every nook and cranny of the Executive Branch. He’s belittling the very idea of climatic anthropogenesis in a dystopian move to force it out of our daily vocabulary and, ultimately, transform it into a toxic a political issue. And it’s working. Despite daily pressers, he never gets asked about climate and he’s been given free-rein to tell comically garish lies about windmills, solar power and the climate. It all goes unchallenged by a cowed and perhaps ignorant press corps.
While we’re busy pondering his peculiar hatred of windmills, Trump has done more than guarantee the internal combustion engine will continue to dominate the US market for the next decade … he’s guaranteed continued Saudi dominance of the OPEC-Plus cartel for the foreseeable future. He’s also guaranteed Saudi Arabia’s security by elevating the Kingdom to major non-NATO ally” status.
That gift was given during Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s recent two-day sojourn in D.C. It’s no coincidence that Trump invited MBS to come to The Increasingly-Gilded House for a lavish ass-kissing at the same time 50,000 people from almost 200 countries met in Belém, Brazil to discuss and potentially hash-out a global response to anthropogenic climate change. Trump completely boycotted the 30th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (a.k.a. COP30). The only US official in attendance was Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI). As far as Trump was concerned, the COP30 meeting didn’t exist.
The same cannot be said for the Saudis.
While MBS was busy collecting favors from his man in DC, a Saudi-led effort nearly scuttled the entire conference. Per The Guardian:
The talks were hauled back from the brink of collapse in an all-night session into Saturday morning, after a bitter standoff between a coalition of more than 80 developed and developing countries, and a group led by Saudi Arabia and its allies plus Russia.
“Saudi Arabia and its allies plus Russia” sure sounds a lot like OPEC-Plus. The outcome certainly played to OPEC-Plus’ benefit. Per Reuters:
Brazil’s COP30 presidency pushed through a compromise climate deal on Saturday that would boost finance for poor nations coping with global warming but that omitted any mention of the fossil fuels driving it.
They had a similar win at the most recent attempt to finalize a global treaty on petrochemically-based plastic pollution. Held in Switzerland back in August, the final agreement was scuttled by you-know-who:
The final decision, or lack there of, underscored the influence of the United States and other oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, which opposed any limit on the productions of plastics, made mostly from fuels like oil and gas.
AP noted that…
Nations had worked for 11 days at the United Nations office in Geneva. But they were deadlocked over whether the treaty should reduce exponential growth of plastic production and put global, legally binding controls on toxic chemicals used to make plastics.
In spite of the Gulf Arabs’ success in forestalling collective action on climate and plastic (a big oil moneymaker), the world is, per Yale Environment 360, still laying the groundwork for OPEC’s eventual decline:
For the fourth year in a row, the world is projected to add a record amount of wind and solar. If the growth of these technologies continues apace, countries will reach an international goal to triple global renewable capacity by the end of this decade, analysts say.
From 2023 to 2025, renewable additions grew by 29 percent each year, according to figures from Ember, an energy think tank. To meet the tripling target, analysts say, additions need to grow by just 12 percent each year from 2026 to 2030.
Keep that in mind the next time Trump rants about Europe’s windmills. Although his domestic war on green energy has been a big win for the Saudis and their petrostate partners, global anger in the wake of the failed COP30 conference underscored how much of the world wants to actually do something about anthropogenic climate change.
And now that China is stepping into a spotlight the US could’ve easily commanded, the world’s leader in manufacturing renewables is beginning to accrue some moral authority by default on an issue that matters a lot to Pakistanis and Spaniards and Bangladeshis, along with most of Europe, sub-Saharan Africa and Oceana. The predicted continued growth in global renewable capacity reflects that fact.
And here’s where Trump is delivering an ultimate prize for the Gulf Petrostates … Trump is locking hyrdocarbons into an exclusive relationship with artificial intelligence.
He’s using the Presidency to arrange a long-term entanglement between energy-hungry AI companies and oversupplied Petrostates. Trump has obsessively pushed pro-Silicon Valley policies under the rubric of “beating” Communist China in an existential race to develop so-called “artificial intelligence.”
It’s a constant refrain you’ll hear from politicians and pundits.
What you don’t hear is how important the hyperscaling of AI data centers will be for the purveyors of hydrocarbons. Trump doesn’t hide it. He’s often opined about coupling electricity production with data centers. He’s even trying to rescue coal from the ash-heap of history by incentivizing building new coal-powered electricity plants next to data centers. That’s also the point of linking The Valley to The Gulf.
Every new hyperscaled data center is a life-extending win for OPEC-Plus. And it’s also a win for the Tech Bros currently racing each other to become the Valley’s leader in artificial intelligence. To get there, they need a bottomless supply of electricity unconstrained by environmental concerns about water use or land use or climate pollution. Now, thanks to Trump and the Supreme Court, environmental regulations aren’t even an afterthought. Trump has eliminated climate as potential concern or constraint on their AI aspirations—however destructive those aspirations might be.
Like the Saudis, they found an easily cajoled champion who also happens to be perfectly situated to remove substantial roadblocks and speedbumps. They don’t really care that he’s systematically sabotaging the renewables industry or that he’s working hard to make hyrdocarbons the only practical option for most Americans throughout the next decade. They have the money and, they believe, they’ll have the technology to insulate themselves from the consequences of using Trump as a political bulldozer. They are, however, willing to decide the fate of millions who’ve contributed little or nothing to the atmosphere-altering pollution that makes the Valley and the Gulf very, very rich.
What to know about Trump’s executive order to curtail state AI regulations
https://www.newsday.com/news/nation/trump-executive-order-artificial-intelligence-ai-regulation-h89199
U.S. Helped to Weaken Report at U.N. Environment Talks, Participants Say
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/11/climate/unep-climate-report-trump-administration.html
Trump Reels Saudi Arabia Back Into US Orbit
https://www.newsmax.com/platinum/mohammed-bin-salman-saudi-arabia-donald-trump/2025/11/24/id/1235825/
Saudi Arabia’s MbS pulled off a strategic coup in Washington. Trump made an uncertain bet
https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/saudi-arabias-mbs-pulled-off-a-strategic-coup-in-washington-trump-made-an-uncertain-bet-10420408/
Silicon Statecraft: How U.S.-Gulf AI Deals Project Power
https://warontherocks.com/2025/10/silicon-statecraft-how-u-s-gulf-ai-deals-project-power
Anatomy of Two Giant Deals: The U.A.E. Got Chips. The Trump Team Got Crypto Riches.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/us/politics/trump-uae-chips-witkoff-world-liberty.htm
‘Incredible Corruption’: Blockbuster Report on Trump Crypto Grift Leaves Observers Stunned
https://www.commondreams.org/news/trump-uae-crypto-deal
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https://www.salon.com/2025/12/13/jared-kushner-is-at-the-center-of-trumps-corruption/
Saudis and Kushner and Trump, oh my: Why it matters that CNN stay out of Paramount’s clutches
https://dankennedy.net/2025/12/11/saudis-and-kushner-and-trump-oh-my-why-it-matters-that-cnn-stay-out-of-paramounts-clutches/
Here’s Everything We Know About Trump’s Financial Ties To Saudi Arabia
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2025/11/14/how-trumps-finances-got-tangled-up-with-saudi-arabia/