As you know, I'm looking for clues re: the impact of gender and masculinity on this campaign. Here’s what I’ve got for you today…
Trump's campaign has gone "full bro" since his testosterone-soaked convention ... and I suspect he's helped himself with younger bros by going on Theo Von's and Andrew Schulz's podcasts. And he's pretty good on ‘em. No yelling. Nothing off limits. Answers every question. Willing to get a little personal. He connects with the interviewers and, I suspect, with their audiences … which are substantial … 13 million views over the month since he appeared on Von’s pod and nearly 2 million views since Schulz posted Trump’s pod yesterday.
At the same time, Harris is working on women ... going on The View and the Call Her Daddy podcast, which reportedly attracts 5 million downloads each week.
In a weird way, I feel like we are watching a crappy political reboot of Billie Jean King vs. Bobby Riggs. I guess I thought the "battle of the sexes" was a 20th Century thing.
According to this EXCERPT from a new Emerson poll, it's very au courant:
Generally, female voters tend to support Harris while male voters support Trump, with the lone exception coming in Arizona, where Trump leads among both men and women.
AZ: men break 49% to 47% for Trump, and women break 50% to 47% for Trump.
GA: men break 56% to 42% for Trump, and women break 54% to 44% for Harris.
MI: men break 55% to 43% for Trump, and women break 54% to 44% for Harris.
NC: men break 55% to 42% for Trump, and women break 52% to 45% for Harris.
NV: men break 52% to 43% for Trump, and women break 53% to 43% for Harris.
PA: men break 56% to 42% for Trump, and women break 54% to 43% for Harris.
WI: men break 54% to 45% for Trump, and women break 53% to 45% for Harris.
BTW: those numbers don't look great for Harris. To win, she needs to turn out a shit-ton of young, female first-time voters to overcome Trump's gender-based advantages in PA, WI, NC, GA & AZ.
The way the trendlines are going in the swing states, she could be in Trump's 2016 position ... that is, she’s lagging in the polls, but it might be because her support is partially hidden from pollsters. To win now like he did then, it will be thanks to her hidden voters … perhaps the half-million voters Taylor Swift registered and Gen Zers motivated by abortion to vote for the first time. Ultimately, the election might hinge on a surge of young women to overcome Trump's army of bros because, unlike Billie Jean King, it doesn’t look like suburban Xers and Boomers can do it alone.
After all, this is not tennis.