THE SET-UP: The chief executive of Saudi Aramco just declared victory in the war against climate change. To be precise, the war was against the very idea that anthropogenic climate change necessitates action. The war’s main casualty is hope … specifically, the hope that humankind will avoid the super-heated world we’ve been ushering in by burning hydrocarbons.
Speaking to the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, UK on Monday, Amin Nasser reveled in the end of the “energy transition” away from hydrocarbons:
Much of the promised progress has not been delivered, with many unintended consequences. Thankfully, it is finally shifting the narrative in three key ways.
First, while EVs and renewables are growing, they are not even covering demand growth and remain small in absolute numbers… In reality, this is not a true energy transition; it’s an energy addition which requires all hands on deck.
Second, this reality is why every major forecaster is revising scenarios, with oil and gas locked in for decades, which I hope is the green light for long-term investments in both.
Third, even in the Global North, the economic realities, technology limits, and public acceptance of the current transition plan are forcing some welcome policy U-turns.
..and, he added…
We are determined to remain dominant in oil thanks to a massive resource base, low costs, and one of the lowest upstream carbon intensities across the industry… We are accelerating in gas, as we have some of the world’s largest reserves, including significant potential in unconventional gas… And despite the current downturn, chemicals remain a key long-term growth area, with our proven strengths in both feedstocks and conversion.
Their continued dominance is all but guaranteed by the rapid growth in artificial intelligence:
By 2030, the entire data centre ecosystem could be consuming up to four times more electricity than the entire global battery EV fleet.
That last line appears to be directed at the International Energy Agency (IEA). They’ve been predicting the world would reach “peak demand” for hydrocarbons by 2030. Just a few years ago the IEA pegged 2028 as the inflection point that would usher in a era of continually declining demand and, therefore, declining investment in the oil industry and declining power for the Saudis and their Gulf Arab partners.
But that was before Donald Trump’s win in 2024. His second stint in the White House has been a huge win for the Saudis, the Emiratis, the Qataris and the Oil-Industrial Complex in the United States. Greased by an unprecedented array of personally enriching business deals with each of those three nations, Trump has more than returned the favor by making Silicon Valley’s wishes his regime’s commands … thus guaranteeing the need for “four times more electricity” by 2030. Perhaps more importantly, Trump has eliminated climate change both as a political issue and a policy imperative for the Federal government.
It’s not only gone as a priority, it’s just … gone.
The words “climate change” and any words or phrases related to climate change are strictly verboten. Gone, too, are questions about climate change … and those were few and far-between to begin with. Trump can make wild assertions about windmills and denounce climate change as a “hoax” in a speech to the United Nations General Assembly without any fear of being challenged by reporters. Trump’s ripping out and shutting down renewable energy infrastructure, he’s illegally rescinding Congressionally-appropriated funds for renewable projects and he’s turned the relevant agencies over to the Oil-Industrial Complex … all without the rapidly changing climate ever being broached. It’s not climate denial … it’s climate nullification.
Democrats have responded to this as many might expect—they’ve abandoned the issue because, as the editor of Politico’s California Climate newsletter wrote today, climate change “is decidedly unfashionable in 2025.” Instead, Debra Kahn reports, “Climate is out, affordability is in.”
Three of the Democrats she features in the piece—Sen. Brian Schatz of Hawai’i, Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware and, most notably, California Gov. Gavin Newsom—are emphasizing the price of energy instead of the long-term cost of burning hydrocarbons. They, like Democrats throughout the decades since Reagan in 1980, are modulating their message to match the tempo set by Republicans. Said Coons:
American voters clearly didn’t give the Biden-Harris administration and Democrats the credit we hoped they would for transformational investments in energy, and that sent a signal to Trump that he could reverse, defund or cut lots of investments in new energy generation, grid stability, energy research, new energy sources for the United States.”
Perhaps.
Or maybe the problem is that Biden’s administration did nothing to promote those “transformational investments” after the bill was signed. The same was true of the infrastructure package. Instead of ribbon cuttings and groundbreaking events with shovels and hardhats, they did little to inform voters about the impact of their wins. Neither Biden nor Kamala Harris made a point of visiting renewable projects and, at the very least, dominate local news coverage for one pass through the newscycle. The same is true of the Presidential campaign. Climate and the environment played no real role in the campaign, despite two epic disasters (Hurricane Helene and the LA Fires) and the emerging home insurance crisis, among many other things.
Despite the reality that Democrats didn’t actually campaign on all of the above, the party’s takeaway is, according to Kahn:
“While climate legislation didn’t lose Democrats the election, it didn’t not lose it, either.”
I’d argue that the “failure” of climate change as a political issue is similar to a problem with Christianity identified by philosopher G.K. Chesterton:
“The Christian ideal has not been tried and found wanting. It has been found difficult; and left untried.”
The greatest irony of all is that the Saudis are directing some of their oil profits into projects their man in DC labels “stupid” and “destructive.” So, while Trump is doing everything he can to guarantee America’s long-term dependence on oil, his benefactors are reducing their reliance on their own product. It’s said that the key to being a successful drug dealer is “never get high on your own supply.” I guess that would make Trump their street corner salesman. Luckily for them, we’re totally hooked and it doesn’t look like anyone has the guts to try an intervention. - jp
Saudi Aramco chief warns of global oil shortage if industry fails to invest
https://www.ft.com/content/698b826a-8d14-4eef-bca6-f84634965080
Falling Saudi oil demand highlights power generation progress
https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/news/55323749/falling-saudi-oil-demand-highlights-power-generation-progress
Saudi Arabia’s massive green hydrogen facility set for 2026 startup
https://energiesmedia.com/saudi-arabias-hydrogen-facility-set-for-2026/
Saudi Arabia launches wind tower manufacturing plant in Yanbu to boost local industry
https://energiesmedia.com/saudi-arabia-open-wind-tower-manufacturing-plant/
Trinasolar showcases new solar solutions in Saudi Arabia
https://technicalreviewmiddleeast.com/power-a-water/trinasolar-showcases-new-solar-solutions-in-saudi-arabia
Even Saudi Arabia is focused on solar energy. Will the US be left behind?
https://www.dailygazette.com/tribune/commentary-even-saudi-arabia-is-focused-on-solar-energy-will-the-us-be-left-behind/article_0e0ecf7d-88a3-5573-98ba-cbf1148d60ce.html