OUR DAILY THREAD: Groceries Strike Back!
Are Trump's tariffs are making Democrats palatable again?
THE SET-UP: Trump spoke at Charlie Kirk’s memorial. He followed Erika Kirk’s powerful mash-up of a eulogy, sermon and love letter. Basically, she opened for Trump and, of course, he treated it like another rally. He came out to a pyrotechnics display while Lee Greenwood sang his theme-song … and he lingered, absorbing the adoration like a pathological sponge. He mostly stayed focused on Kirk during the first third of his remarks, but then quickly defaulted to his usual shtick.
But one portion of the speech stood out. He launched into a forceful, almost desperate defense of tariffs and the economy.
Now, just like Charlie and Erica made Turning Point hot, we are looking at a country that has the chance to attain a level like never before. Tariffs are making us rich again, richer than anybody ever thought was possible, and the only one challenging them are people that hate our country, or foreign countries that are paying a price because they did the same thing to us for years. They took advantage of us. But where we're making money, we're becoming richer and richer, and we're taking care of our people better and better. When we do that, we can take care of other countries better and better, but we're doing unbelievably well. The tariffs have really been a hold. The election was big, but the tariffs because of the election came in. And remember other nations do that to us. And Charlie understood that. He saw the money he saw was coming into our country. And we can use that for Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, all of these things that we fight so hard for.
This might be written off as a typical Glengarry Glen Ross “ABC” moment from the salesman who is always closing. But it came on the heels of four new polls that portend potential problems.
An Economist/YouGov poll taken at the start of last week found Trump has a 39% approval rating. Nothing unusual about that. He’s been there before, but it’s not a good number heading into the midterm election. More notable is a Washington Post/Ipsos poll on specific issues that has him underwater by 19 points on the handling of the economy (40% approve/59% disapprove) and 30 points underwater on the issue of tariffs (34% approve/64% disapprove).
The issue of tariffs was explored in a nationwide survey of registered voters by Global Strategy Group. As Axios reported, they found a stark divide on tariffs among MAGA Republicans and non-MAGA Republicans. Here are Axios’s main takeaways:
Nearly one in four MAGA-supporting Republicans don't like tariffs.
There's now a staggering 66-point gap between MAGA Republicans and other Republican Party voters on the state of the economy.
Nearly half of non-MAGA Republicans think the economy has gotten worse this year, while the overwhelming majority of MAGA Republicans think the economy has improved
It’s not surprising that MAGA devotees remain buoyant despite everything. But they are not enough to carry the GOP through the midterms, where the Democratic base is likely to be highly motivated. They need the non-MAGA Republicans and independents … which leads us to the final poll … an AP-NORC poll that also has his job approval at 39%.
Again, not good … but not nearly as bad as the notoriously predictive “Right Track/Wrong Track” number.
Many veteran political observers will tell you that the “is the country on the right or wrong track?” number is a reliable indictor of voter sentiment and it is hard for incumbents to overcome voters’ belief that the country is on the wrong track. The same is true in reverse. If the country is thought to be on the right track … incumbents can be hard to beat. Here are some of the key findings … on Right Track/Wrong Track:
Since June, the share of adults who say the country is on the wrong track increased 13 percentage points from 62% to 75%.
The shift occurred primarily among Republicans.
In June, 29% of Republicans said the country was heading in the wrong direction. That number is now 51%.
…and on tariffs…
Roughly 60% of the public feels Trump has gone too far in imposing new tariffs on other countries.
Long-story-short, the people don’t care much for tariffs and they are only nominally more enthusiastic about his handling of the economy. And methinks it’s why the President protested a bit too much at Kirk’s sanctification ritual. He knows his crooked crypto fortune and issues like the Homan Bag O’ Money Bribe are going to be thrust into the limelight should the Dems win the House. And there will be plenty of grifting and extra-constitutional hijinks for a Democratic-run Oversight Committee to choose from.
Right now, Trump has complete domination of the messaging space. He does not want to cede that to a Dem-controlled House or, however slim the chance currently is, to a Dem-controlled Senate. I believe his plan is to run on his strongest issue—crime—and he’ll use National Guard deployments to declare himself America’s leading crime-fighter and savior.
It may or may not work. Crime was potent in 2024.
But so was the price of food and the economy.
And voters thought the country was on the “wrong track” under Biden and Harris.
In fact, on September 28, 2024, an NBC News poll had 65% of registered voters saying the country is on the wrong track. Just 28% said it was the right track. Now it’s Trump who is on-the-hook for being on the wrong track. Add to that a cratering job market and, as you’ll see in OUR DAILY THREAD, a coming barrage of real-world consequences from his chainsaw-like cuts that will be hitting voters in the coming year.
It appears some of the pain the One Big Beautiful Bill was designed to defer until after the election … is already starting to bite. Inflation is not “fixed.” And voters are primed to connect tariffs with an expensive holiday shopping season … let alone the high price of groceries.
It could be that Trump’s manic attempt to convince people “tariffs are making us rich again, richer than anybody ever thought was possible” and his paranoid accusation that “the only ones challenging them are people that hate our country” told us far more about his state of mind than it did about the state of the economy. - jp
‘Inflation in America is solved,’ Trump tells royal pals in Britain
https://www.peoplesworld.org/article/inflation-in-america-is-solved-trump-tells-royal-pals-in-britain/
Grocery prices have jumped up, and there's no relief in sight https://www.npr.org/2025/09/19/nx-s1-5539547/grocery-prices-tariffs-food-inflation
Cash-strapped Americans turn to discounted food as inflation bites
https://investorsobserver.com/economy/cash-strapped-americans-turn-to-discounted-food-as-inflation-bites/
Trump administration cancels annual hunger report after enacting historic cuts to nation’s safety net
https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/21/health/hunger-reports-usda
Impact of Trump cuts will be harder to track without USDA hunger survey, advocates say
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/impact-trump-cuts-will-be-harder-track-without-usda-hunger-survey-advocates-say-2025-09-22/
States Grapple With Fundamental Change in Food Stamps
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/20/us/politics/food-stamps-snap.htm
States Are Cutting Medicaid Provider Payments Long Before Trump Cuts Hit
https://kffhealthnews.org/news/article/state-medicaid-cuts-reimbursement-big-bill-north-carolina-idaho-budgets/
Rural health clinics are closing after Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill,’ raising the legislation’s political risks
https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/22/politics/rural-healthcare-one-big-beautiful-bill
Trump’s Policies Have Now Shut Down Several Rural Women’s Health Clinics
https://thestoryexchange.org/trumps-policies-have-now-shut-down-several-rural-womens-health-clinics/
Trump tariff risks cast shadow on rural income outlook: Nabard survey
https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/trump-tariff-risks-cast-shadow-on-rural-income-outlook-nabard-survey-125092200978_1.html
Trump’s tariff policies expected to unequally affect lower-income households
https://dailybruin.com/2025/09/21/trumps-tariff-policies-expected-to-unequally-affect-lower-income-households
Report: Trump tax cuts creates financial strain, inequities for New York
https://www.news10.com/news/ny-news/comptroller-warns-budget-crisis/
Trump’s Tax Cut Is Underwater. Can a ‘Refund Boom’ Save It?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/22/us/politics/trump-tax-cuts.html