DAILY TRIFECTA: When X-Wings And Robots Are Science Facts

Earth Wars are coming to a military theatre near you

THE SET-UP: Ukraine’s war is a twofer. Billions of dollars are cycling through the conflict and, therefore, the war is generating a great deal of revenue for the defense industry in Europe and the United States. And, at the same time, the battlespace is an engine of innovation that functions as an ideal laboratory and proving ground for military drones and artificial intelligence. The real-world opportunity to evaluate and learn from those capabilities is priceless. And it is accelerating innovation. From DroneXL.com:

Ukraine has transformed into the testing ground for a new era of AI-powered drone warfare, where autonomous systems are achieving remarkable success rates while dramatically reducing training requirements and operational costs. The implications of this technological revolution are reshaping modern combat operations in real-time, reports The Economist.

This dual-use of a war as both a revenue stream and as an incubator for product development is not new. Wars often inspire innovative new ways to kill human beings. What’s “new” is the introduction of increasingly autonomous weapons. - jp

TITLE: How Ukraine uses cheap AI-guided drones to deadly effect against Russia
http://economist.com/europe/2024/12/02/how-ukraine-uses-cheap-ai-guided-drones-to-deadly-effect-against-russia

EXCERPTS: Ukraine’s drone war is evolving rapidly. Once a cheap answer to Russia’s artillery dominance, Ukrainian small and inexpensive first-person view (fpv) drones are now a force in their own right. They are used on a huge scale, with Ukraine projected to produce 2m this year. Ukraine now observes 1,000 Russian drones in every 24-hour period, says an insider. That has made some sections of the front lines, for example around Siversk in Luhansk province, practically no-go areas for humans. Drones are now responsible for a majority of battlefield losses, overtaking artillery, according to Ukrainian sources.

They are carrying more explosives and flying farther per dollar, says Andrey Liscovich of the Ukraine Defence Fund, which crowdsources non-lethal aid. When fpvs were introduced at scale at the beginning of 2023 they could fly 10km or so, notes Yaroslav Filimonov, the ceo of Kvertus, a Ukrainian firm which makes anti-drone gear. Now 30km flights are routine, thanks to more powerful antennae and signal-repeater drones that let them communicate with base stations from greater distances. They are becoming more diverse, too. Large “bomber” drones scatter 10kg landmines on Russian supply roads. fpv “interceptor” drones have now taken out more than 850 Russian surveillance drones in the air, according to Tochnyi, a research group, easing the burden on the country’s air-defence missile stocks and undermining Russia’s ability to co-ordinate strikes.

The biggest change of all is that electronic warfare—essentially jamming—has consumed the battlefield. That started with the jamming of gps signals from satellites, which caused American precision-guided weapons to fail at alarming rates. It has extended to the communication link between pilot and drone. By the beginning of this year, says Gundbert Scherf, the co-founder and ceo of Helsing, a German military ai firm, jamming was no longer “spotty” but “pervasive”. Dronemakers are having to change their radios and antennae at ever shorter intervals. They face a dilemma: if they rely on common frequencies, the parts are easy to source but jamming is worse; rare frequencies are jammed less, but require more obscure hardware. The solution is to avoid jamming altogether by relying on ai to guide the drone to its target in the final stages of flight.

Rudimentary object-recognition software has been in use, on both sides, for over a year. But it is getting better. Lorenz Meier of Auterion, a firm based in America, says that between spring and summer his firm’s software, known as Skynode, managed to double the range at which a drone could engage a target, from 500 metres to 1km or so. He says that improvements in the resolution of images captured by drones have since increased that further. The Economist understands that ai systems are sometimes locking onto targets at perhaps double that distance, far beyond the range at which basic jammers could take out the drone.

Data from the battlefield suggest that the hit rate for these ai-guided drones is currently above 80%. That is higher than the rate of manually piloted drones. As important, the training burden declines dramatically. Mr Liscovich notes that, although there are now more highly experienced drone pilots, some with thousands of hours of flying time, the average quality of Ukrainian personnel has fallen over time as less motivated people are conscripted. “We can train an operator within 30 minutes and the quality of the engagement doesn’t depend on their piloting skills,” says Mr Meier.

The result is that Ukraine has become the furnace of a new kind of software-defined warfare which combines precision with mass. Helsing is selling Ukraine 4,000 of its hf-1 strike drones, which it says will have the same payload as the Russian Lancet, around 5kg or so, and perhaps triple the range (up to 100km) but at a lower price (the Lancet costs around $30,000). Auterion, which had its first combat engagement in the spring, plans to field tens of thousands of drones powered by its software by early next year, with each unit (a chip pre-loaded with software) about the cost of an Android smartphone.

TITLE: Helsing officially unveils HX-2 Karma intelligent loitering munition
https://euro-sd.com/2024/12/major-news/41720/helsing-unveils-hx-2-lm/

EXCERPTS: According to Helsing, the HX-2 Karma is an electrically powered, X-wing, precision loitering munition with a range of up to 100 km (X-wing meaning four wings and rotors in an X arrangement). This new type of software-based, swarm-capable loitering munition is designed from the ground up to be cost-effective to mass produce. The advanced AI on board enables high jamming resistance even in a highly competitive electromagnetic spectrum. The company developed and tested the system’s capabilities based on its extensive experience in Ukraine.

With a take-off weight of up to 12 kg, the HX-2 falls into weight class 1 (mini-UAS). The payload (warhead) of a maximum of 4.5 kg can be carried at a maximum speed of 250 km/h to targets 100 km away and detonated there, with the HX-2 obviously destroyed when the explosive charge detonates. If the HX-2 is not completely destroyed at the end of the mission, it is ensured that the encrypted software, which is protected against re-engineering, can neither be used nor deciphered.

According to Helsing, the HX-2 can be produced in large quantities and is considerably cheaper than conventional unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The performance of the hardware components is raised to the required level using AI methods.

At the core of the HX-2’s software is Altra: a reconnaissance and attack software package from Helsing’s development offices. Altra controls the sensors, evaluates the results and derives recommendations for action for the operator. The operator decides on the HX-2’s actions at any time, but can also allow certain aspect to run automatically. The operator, however, finally confirms the target and initiates the final approach, ensuring that a human operator retains decision-making control over the system.

Altra makes it possible to combine several loiering munitions into a swarm that is controlled as a whole by the operator to perform tasks together.

The HX-2 Karma is self-sufficient thanks to its onboard computer, which runs advanced algorithms using AI. The resulting high resistance to interference enables the system to be used effectively. The HX-2 uses stored mapping data for autonomous navigation. During flight the navigation system uses landmarks to determine the exact position of the HX-2, with the AI allowing a very large number of landmarks to be evaluated. When approaching the target, the target is identified using image recognition, if necessary supported by reconnaissance UAVs in the area. In this way, the HX-2 can reliably find its target without relying on a satellite navigation system and even in highly electromagnetically contested areas.

“With HX-2, we are creating a new category of effector that combines mass with intelligence and extreme precision. Individual HX-2s can reliably engage armoured targets even in the most contested environments. When deployed on a large scale along land borders, HX-2 can serve as a powerful shield against entire land forces,” said Niklas Köhler, co-founder of Helsing.

“With HX-2, we are creating a new category of effector that combines mass with intelligence and extreme precision. Individual HX-2s can reliably engage armoured targets even in the most contested environments. When deployed on a large scale along land borders, HX-2 can serve as a powerful shield against entire land forces,” said Niklas Köhler, co-founder of Helsing.

TITLE: Ukraine sees use of uncrewed ground vehicles, AI-targeting drones surging next year
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-sees-use-uncrewed-ground-vehicles-ai-targeting-drones-surging-next-year-2024-12-02/

EXCERPTS: Ukraine will need tens of thousands of uncrewed robotic ground vehicles next year to shuttle ammunition and supplies to infantry in the trenches and evacuate wounded soldiers, a senior government minister told Reuters.

The buggy-like vehicles, an example of how technology is transforming trench warfare in Ukraine, would spare troops from operating in areas near the front where Russian shelling and drones are rife, Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said.

"This year we purchased several thousand ground platforms, and next year, I believe, we need tens of thousands," the minister, who has overseen drone procurement for most of the war, said in an interview.

The vehicles, he said, are already being used along the front and in Russia's Kursk region, where Kyiv's troops carved out an enclave in an August incursion. Ukraine has several training centres to teach their use, he added.

The use of military technology has rapidly evolved, even as the war has been locked in a bloody, attritional struggle with no major battlefield changes despite Russia's recently accelerating gains 33 months since the 2022 invasion.

Fedorov, whose official remit is digital affairs, has played a prominent role in supporting the development of military technology through a government-backed platform to nurture private-sector innovation. As of this month he no longer oversees the procurement of drones.

Ukraine has focused heavily on increasing production and improving the specifications of long-range attack drones to conduct deep strikes on Russia, narrowing the gulf in capabilities with its adversary.

He also confirmed Ukraine was working on drones to intercept the Shahed-type long-range attack drones that Russia uses for its nightly attacks on Ukrainian cities.

"There is some testing by certain companies producing ... aircraft that, thanks to specialised software and radars, can strike Shaheds, but this is still in the research and development phase. There are certain results," he said.

Fedorov said 10 companies were consistently competing in state procurements to offer AI products.