THE SET-UP: The funny thing about a truly effective missile defense system is that, in the age of mutually assured destruction, it is also the ultimate offensive weapon. It could (or would) immediately transform nuclear weapons from a deterrent into a viable military option. That’s because the ability to knock down incoming intercontinental ballistic missiles eliminates the unspeakable retaliatory cost of launching a nuclear first strike.
That was one of the objections to Ronald Reagan’s infamous “Star Wars” initiative. At the height of what was the second peak of the Cold War, Reagan proposed a space-based system that would eliminate Russia’s first strike capability. Of course, it could also knock down its retaliatory capabilities and, therefore, would turn General Curtis LeMay’s kinetic fantasy into a dystopian reality.
The rub back then was that it wasn’t technically possible. Money was spent, animations were produced and tests were run … but the idea was decades ahead of the technology. But it did have an impact on the Soviets … and there is some indication that it motivated new Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev to “go big” at the Reykjavík Summit in 1986. Whether Reagan knew it wasn’t possible and cunningly used it as a bluff … or, by then, was “way out there in the blue” and delusional about the Strategic Defense Initiative … is fun fodder for historical debate.
Today, though, the technology is not decades away. To the contrary, in fact … and missile defense systems could and perhaps already do embolden offensive moves by a nation with, for example, less airspace to cover. If successfully deployed as an impregnable transcontinental shield by a major nuclear power, it might even convince a future leader to launch a nuclear first strike.
Despite Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s assurance that “…all we care about is protecting the homeland,” the fact is we don’t know what will happen if and when we dispatch the Leviathan that’s kept missiles in their silos for 70 years. The possibilities are, as this China Daily op-ed demonstrates, clearly on the mind of America’s ennemi du jour:
The "Golden Dome" is a global, multi-level, multi-domain missile defense system that goes far beyond the purpose of defense. With it in place, the US openly seeks a significant expansion of outer space-based combat capabilities, including the development and deployment of orbital interception systems.
The so-called defense system, which carries clear offensive implications and violates the principle of peaceful use of outer space as enshrined in the Outer Space Treaty, is expected to become a core component of the US' space bulwark serving as strategic intimidation to the rest of the world, accelerating the US' colonization of outer space and turning it to an extended arena for its geopolitical games.
That’s not to say China isn’t pursuing its own agenda in space. It is. Or that it hasn’t developed hypersonic missiles as a counter to current US “shield” capabilities. It has. But it is important to note that seeing missile defense as missile offense is completely rational. The simple fact is that it’s a clear military advantage and should one nation gain the ultimate strategic high-ground in space … the temptation to use that advantage will be great. Perhaps even irresistible.
It’s a particularly disquieting notion given this nation’s Cold War-like obsession with China … or, more accurately, its Cold War-like obsession with “the Chinese Communist Party.” If you watch C-SPAN at all, you’ve heard members of both parties repeatedly talk about the Chinese Communist Party, a.k.a. China, in ways that seem McCarthyesque.
China is, apparently, the most malevolent force on the planet. To listen to Representatives and Senators talk, you’d think China was going around the world invading countries that posed it no risk, bombing numerous nations in a series of undeclared wars and that it made a practice of dictating the terms of the international system while, at the same time, abrogating those terms whenever and wherever it is expedient to do so.
One can only wonder how a Golden Dome might embolden a nation with a track record of behaving that way. Given the buckets of money President Trump intends to pour into the Military-Industrial trough … we might not have to wait very long to find out. - jp
TITLE: Golden Dome’s Price Tag Will Likely Exceed Half a Trillion Dollars, Space Force Chief Says
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/golden-domes-price-tag-will-likely-exceed-half-trillion-dollars/
EXCERPTS: The “Golden Dome” homeland missile defense system proposed by President Donald Trump will likely cost more than half a trillion dollars, Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman said.
Saltzman’s prediction came during a May 15 POLITICO event when he was asked if he thought the Congressional Budget Office’s $542 billion estimate for the largely space-based air and missile defense system was too high. He said he believed it was not.
“I’m 34 years in this business; I’ve never seen an early estimate that was too high,” Saltzman said. “My gut tells me there’s going to be some additional funding that’s necessary.”
Golden Dome has been compared to President Ronald Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative, which was intended to protect the United States from nuclear attack. Dubbed by some as “Star Wars,” the missile defense program ultimately failed because of high costs and technology constraints.
Critics of the effort maintain that the billions of dollars already earmarked for it would be better spent on weapons capable of penetrating China’s formidable defenses.
“To build a system over the entire country would be incredibly hard, and we’re not sure it’s going to work,” said retired NASA astronaut Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who also spoke at POLITICO’s event, adding that the reconciliation package in the White House’s proposed defense spending plan has about “$26 billion in there for Golden Dome that could go toward things like [F-47] or the Collaborative Combat Aircraft, which we really need if we want to be competitive in the western Pacific against China.”
Some of Kelly’s Democratic colleagues agree.
Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) criticized the money proposed for the Golden Dome as “essentially a slush fund at this point” during a Defense Writers Group event May 14.
Saltzman acknowledged that Golden Dome is still in the early stages of planning and will involve overseeing many advanced elements “that you have to stitch together in very technical ways.”
“You don’t buy Golden Dome; you orchestrate a program that includes a lot of programs … it’s a system of systems,” Saltzman said. The U.S military will need to decide “which systems are critical … which ones are affordable, which ones are practical in terms of the technology we can rapidly bring to bear.”
TITLE: Which Stocks Are Set to Soar on Trump’s $175B Golden Dome Plan?
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/LMT/pressreleases/32522680/which-stocks-are-set-to-soar-on-trumps-175b-golden-dome-plan/
EXCERPTS: Lockheed Martin (LMT) Locks In as Star Player
Lockheed isn’t just watching from the sidelines. It’s already in the huddle. From the Sentinel A4 radar to its long-range interceptors, this is Lockheed’s natural turf. COO Frank St. John compared the Golden Dome’s urgency to the atomic age: “In terms of importance for the defense of the nation, it’s similar to the Manhattan Project.” That’s not casual boardroom talk. That’s battle stations.
The company is also eyeing a slice of the new $27 billion earmarked just for phase one. This could supercharge Lockheed’s revenue — especially with missile defense and space contracts likely to pour in.
RTX (RTX) Powers Up Precision Radar Systems
RTX, the artist formerly known as Raytheon, might not grab headlines like Lockheed, but make no mistake — its radar tech could be the backbone of the Golden Dome. RTX’s interceptors and tracking systems are critical for the kind of “see everything, hit anything” satellite shield Trump is envisioning.
Golden Dome needs vision. RTX builds the eyes.
Palantir (PLTR) Quietly Becomes a $140B Giant
Palantir is the unlikely winner that’s already laughing its way to the bank. Since Trump’s win, it’s added $23 billion in market cap. That kind of climb isn’t about vibes — it’s about federal dollars. Palantir’s software is almost tailor-made for tracking threats in real time, integrating satellite feeds, and helping the military predict the next move before it happens.
In fact, Palantir’s now worth more than Lockheed. Let that sink in.
L3Harris (LHX) Builds Out Satellite Backbone
L3Harris is the builder working in silence. But don’t mistake quiet for small. It’s been handed contracts across every layer of the missile-tracking satellite program. Think of L3Harris as the scaffolding of the entire Golden Dome structure — unseen, but critical.
And if Golden Dome goes full steam, L3Harris may not stay quiet much longer.
Trump’s Golden Dome pitch isn’t subtle. It’s massive, muscular, and meant to make America “impenetrable.” Whether or not it flies politically, the defense sector is already moving — and Lockheed, RTX, Palantir, and L3Harris are standing right where the money’s about to land.
TITLE: Golden Dome: An aerospace engineer explains the proposed nationwide missile defense system
https://theconversation.com/golden-dome-an-aerospace-engineer-explains-the-proposed-nationwide-missile-defense-system-257408
EXCERPTS: Such a defense system requires a global array of geographically distributed sensors that cover all phases of all missile trajectories.
First, it is essential for the system to detect the missile threats as early as possible after launch, so some of the sensors must be located close to regions where adversaries may fire them, such as by China, Russia, North Korea and Iran. Then, it has to track the missiles along their trajectories as they travel hundreds or thousands of miles.
These requirements are met by deploying a variety of sensors on a number of different platforms on the ground, at sea, in the air and in space. Interceptors are placed in locations that protect vital U.S. assets and usually aim to engage threats during the middle portion of the trajectory between launch and the terminal dive.
The U.S. already has a broad array of sensors and interceptors in place around the world and in space primarily to protect the U.S. and its allies from ballistic missiles. The sensors would need to be expanded, including with more space-based sensors, to detect new missiles such as hypersonic missiles. The interceptors would need to be enhanced to enable them to address hypersonic weapons and other missiles and warheads that can maneuver.
The main new challenge here is the ability to track the hypersonic missile continuously. This requires new types of sensors to detect hypersonic vehicles and new sensor platforms that are able to provide a complete picture of the hypersonic trajectory. As described, Golden Dome would use the sensors in a layered approach in which they are installed on a variety of platforms in multiple domains, including ground, sea, air and space.
These various platforms would need to have different types of sensors that are specifically designed to track hypersonic threats in different phases of their flight paths. These defensive systems will also be designed to address weapons fired from space. Much of the infrastructure will be multipurpose and able to defend against a variety of missile types.
In terms of time frame for deployment, it is important to note that Golden Dome will build from the long legacy of existing U.S. missile defense systems. Another important aspect of Golden Dome is that some of the new capabilities have been under active development for years. In some ways, Golden Dome represents the commitment to actually deploy systems for which considerable progress has already been made.