DAILY TRIFECTA: The Border War On Terror

REMINDER: A war on terror can easily become a war of terror.

THE SET-UP: Is there anything un-smudged by Elon Musk’s greasy fingers?

Today, he stuck his indefatigable digits into US foreign affairs when he proposed drone strikes on criminal cartels and gangs in Mexico, El Salvador and Venezuela. He was responding the US State Department’s new “terrorist” designation for eight cartels and gangs. According to the General Musk, “That means they’re eligible for drone strikes.”

Oh, really? And who the hell asked Musk weigh-in on a fraught, tricky question of foreign and military affairs? And who the hell empowered Musk to issue threats of kinetic violence on behalf of the US Government?

Ironically, it came on the heels of a White House court filing that stated Musk was NOT empowered to make DOGE-related decisions. What is clear, though, is that Musk’s increasingly intoxicated by the aroma of his own flatulence. That’s all shits-and-giggles when he’s opining on his “hyperloop” or his Martian vacation plans, but the joke gets old real fast when the punchline is misfired nuclear safety and avian flu specialists or threats against criminal cartels with US military assets … particularly when the CIA is already engaged in recon flights.

Those flights are, according to President Claudia Sheinbaum, “…part of coordination, collaborations that have been taking place for many years between the U.S. and Mexican governments and…at the request of the Mexican government.”

At the same time she’s pushing back on the possibility of US Military engagement inside Mexico … you know, like a drone strike. Give the opacity of Elon’s role and his constant proximity to the Commander-in-Chief, maybe he could be a little more circumspect about leaving his fingerprints on the US’s relationship with its next-door neighbor. - jp

TITLE: The Problem With Designating Cartels as Terrorist Groups
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/18/problem-cartels-terrorist-groups/

EXCERPTS: A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) designation suggests that the United States would treat cartels the way it once treated al Qaeda, engaging in comprehensive intelligence gathering against them. But the truth is an FTO designation does not provide any authorities to increase intelligence collection. Nor do FTO designations make a group an intelligence priority. In fact, there are several FTOs, such as the largely defunct Tamil Tigers, that the United States does not prioritize at all in its intelligence collection.

Importantly, the Trump administration doesn’t need an FTO designation in order to collect more intelligence on cartels. It simply needs to make them a higher priority in the National Intelligence Priorities Framework. The president determines the “top-tier” intelligence priorities.

Another myth is that an FTO designation provides additional authorities to use military force, creating the impression that drone strikes and Navy SEAL team raids on cartel leaders might soon follow. There are no such legal authorities that come with an FTO designation. If an FTO provided more military tools, the Afghan Taliban would certainly have been designated an FTO during 20 years of war in Afghanistan. But it never was. Politically, labeling a group “terrorists” may help justify military action and play better to U.S. audiences, but an FTO designation, by itself, does not provide expanded authorities.

Cartels are indeed national security threats, but expanding the aperture of who is a terrorist, mislabeling cartels as terrorists, and conflating two different threats is the wrong approach. The Trump administration would be better served by bolstering the authorities associated with a transnational criminal organization (TCO) designation. This might include carefully expanding the penalties for supporting a TCO. Even more important is resourcing. The United States can devote more intelligence assets to cartels, strengthening anti-corruption and anti-bribery programs, increasing funding for counter-drug programs in Mexico and other countries, expanding training efforts of allied military and intelligence services, and otherwise increasing the prioritization of cartels.

But if the executive order to designate cartels as FTOs isn’t the best way to deal with the cartels, why was it crafted in the first place? The text of the order might contain a clue. Among other things, it directs the attorney general and the secretary of homeland security “to make operational preparations regarding the implementation of any decision I make to invoke the Alien Enemies Act.” The act, passed in 1798, allows the president to detain, relocate, or deport noncitizens from a country considered an enemy of the United States during wartime. Trump, in remarks as a presidential candidate, repeatedly suggested the act could be deployed as a way of dealing with migrants engaged in criminal activities. Legal experts believe it would be difficult to make use of the Alien Enemies Act in peacetime—without Congress actually declaring war on Mexico or other countries. It hasn’t been invoked since the aftermath of World War II. But the Trump administration—with its expansive view of presidential power—is challenging established congressional and even judicial authority in other realms and appears to be exploring whether designating cartels as FTOs could put the Alien Enemies Act in play.

This would be a terrible mistake. The FTO designation is unnecessary and may even be counterproductive, but an Alien Enemies Act invocation would be much worse. The United States is not at war—the “war on drugs” rhetoric notwithstanding—and the potential for abuse is tremendous.

TITLE: Mexico to reform constitution in wake of US terrorism designations
https://apnews.com/article/mexico-us-cartels-terrorism-trump-cc70d0ea7b0332b889da820bec1629bb

EXCERPTS: Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum said Thursday she will propose constitutional reforms aimed at protecting Mexico’s sovereignty after U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration designated six Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations.

The U.S. designations have stirred worry in Mexico that it could be a preliminary step toward U.S. military intervention on Mexican territory in pursuit of the cartels, something Mexico sharply rejects.

“The Mexican people will not accept under any circumstances interventions, interference or any other act from abroad that could be harmful to the integrity, independence and sovereignty of the nation,” Sheinbaum said.

Sheinbaum said during her daily press briefing Thursday that Mexico also wouldn’t allow outside involvement in investigations or prosecutions without authorization and collaboration of the Mexican government.

“What we want to make clear in the face of this designation is that we do not negotiate sovereignty,” Sheinbaum said. “This cannot be an opportunity for the United States to invade our sovereignty.”

Her administration also proposed reforming the constitution to apply the most severe penalties available under law to foreigners involved in the building, smuggling and distribution of guns. Mexico has long demanded that the U.S. do more to prevent the flood of guns into Mexico from U.S. gun shops and manufacturers.

BTW: The Mexican government’s lawsuit against US gunmakers is heading to the Supreme Court in March. While the US understandably cries foul about the fentanyl heading north, Mexico has tried in vain to stanch the flow of approximately 200,000 U.S.-sourced firearms every year. - jp

TITLE: From fentanyl to avocado: The many faces of the Mexican cartels targeted by Trump
https://english.elpais.com/international/2025-02-20/from-fentanyl-to-avocado-the-many-faces-of-the-mexican-cartels-targeted-by-trump.html

EXCERPTS: Threat fulfilled. The United States has designated six Mexican criminal groups, including the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), as terrorist organizations, responding to the fears of the new administration: fentanyl, migration, and attacks on its citizens on Mexican soil. It is, apparently, a unilateral decision, taken in Washington without any negotiation with the government of Claudia Sheinbaum in terms of relevance or possible cooperation.

Eduardo Guerrero, general director of Lantia Intelligence, makes a first comparison between the six. “The CJNG is everywhere, it is very aggressive and participates in the export of fentanyl to the U.S. and the trafficking of migrants. The Sinaloa Cartel ceased to exist as such, rather they will have to decide which families to target, which ones have the largest number of fentanyl laboratories. The Gulf Cartel does not exist as such either: there is a collection of cells that were once part of it, dedicated above all to human trafficking,” he says. “Then there is the Cárteles Unidos,” he adds, “which was an organization created by the Sinaloa Cartel to support them against the CJNG, and which must now be in decomposition. La Nueva Familia Michoacana, led by the Hurtado Olascoaga brothers, is one of those that has killed the most police officers in recent years, and the one that has grown the most. And the Cartel del Noreste is a mafia from Tamaulipas, a split from Los Zetas,” he concludes.

Here's a look at each one.

Sinaloa Cartel

Washington’s nemesis in terms of security. No other criminal organization has given the U.S. justice system more work than the Sinaloa Cartel. Its last great capo, Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, will spend the rest of his life in prison in the U.S. after his conviction in 2019 for drug trafficking and other crimes.

“The Sinaloa Cartel is largely responsible for the massive influx of fentanyl into the United States over the past eight years or so,” the Justice Department said in a press release it issued in 2024 regarding an indictment of several members of the group. “The cartel’s activities generate enormous sums of money in the United States that belong to the cartel in Mexico. Drug trafficking profits are repatriated to Mexico for use by the cartel,” it added.

Jalisco New Generation Cartel

Washington has been keeping an eye on the CJNG for years. Last year, the U.S. courts convicted El Mencho’s son, Rubén Oseguera González, alias “El Menchito,” for cocaine and methamphetamine trafficking and firearms use. It is not yet known how many years he will spend in prison. In the statement released after the conviction, former Attorney General Merrick B. Garland said that “El Menchito led the Jalisco Cartel’s efforts to use murder, kidnapping, and torture to build the Cartel into a self-described ‘empire’ by manufacturing fentanyl and flooding the United States with massive quantities of lethal drugs.”

La Nueva Familia Michoacana

Led by the Hurtado Olascoaga brothers, particularly Johny Hurtado, alias “El Pez,” this criminal group operates mainly in Guerrero and the State of Mexico. David Saucedo, an expert on the criminal dynamics in the center of the country, says that “La Nueva Familia Michoacana is the third most important macrocriminal group in the country.” Saucedo believes that their inclusion on the list of terrorist organizations is preventive. “I suppose that the Americans want to prevent the Hurtado brothers from benefiting from a possible erosion of the Sinaloa and Jalisco Cartels. It is like trying to give them a preemptive strike,” he argues.

Gulf Cartel

For U.S. agencies, the Gulf Cartel is an organization dedicated to drug trafficking, among other areas, such as illegal fishing and trafficking of marine species. In addition to the arrests and convictions of Osiel Cárdenas and Jorge Costilla, U.S. authorities have in recent years had the alleged successor to both, José Alfredo Cárdenas, alias “El Contador,” in their sights for drug trafficking. Cárdenas was arrested in 2022, but a judge released him at the end of last year.

Cárteles Unidos

Over the years, this strange alliance seemed to decline, a situation that Guerrero confirms. Despite this, their criminal activities have been well documented in recent years. Saucedo points out that the group “was behind the kidnapping of two American phytosanitary inspectors not long ago” in reference to the case of two workers from the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, who were assaulted and detained in Michoacán, where they were inspecting avocado orchards and packing plants. Because of this issue, Joe Biden’s administration stopped the inspections, which generated concern in the sector.

“Due to the tax on exported goods, lemons and avocados have become more expensive in supermarkets in the United States,” Saucedo continued. “American citizens have been murdered in Michoacán in an atrocious manner,” he added. The most recent case was that of two American students, killed in December when they arrived in the state to spend the Christmas vacation.

Cartel del Noreste

As part of agreements between the Mexican and U.S. governments to avoid the imposition of tariffs on Mexican export products, the Sheinbaum administration has targeted this criminal group.

Like Los Zetas before them, the CDN has been the protagonist of violent attacks against security forces in Tamaulipas and Nuevo León. Nowhere else in Mexico has the army participated in more confrontations with suspected criminals than in Nuevo Laredo, a CDN stronghold. In many cases, civil society organizations have denounced abuses by soldiers. Although there are more far-reaching Zetas splinter groups, such as Los Zetas Vieja Escuela, the Justice Department considers the CDN to be the successor organization.