DAILY TRIFECTA: Let's Pull The Rectal Thermometer Out Of The Body Politic
Has the fever broken?
TITLE: 2024 Matchups: Biden Opens Up Lead Over Trump In Head-To-Head, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Haley Leads Biden 1 On 1, But Trails When Third Party Candidates Are Added
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3889
EXCERPT: As signs point to the 2024 presidential election being a repeat of the 2020 race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Biden holds a lead over Trump 50 - 44 percent among registered voters in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of registered voters released today.
In Quinnipiac University's December 20, 2023 poll, the same hypothetical 2024 general election matchup was 'too close to call' as President Biden received 47 percent support and former President Trump received 46 percent support.
In today's poll, Democrats (96 - 2 percent) and independents (52 - 40 percent) support Biden, while Republicans (91 - 7 percent) support Trump.
The gender gap is widening.
Women 58 - 36 percent support Biden, up from December when it was 53 - 41 percent.
Men 53 - 42 percent support Trump, largely unchanged from December when it was 51 - 41 percent.
In a five-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup that includes independent and Green Party candidates, Biden receives 39 percent support, Trump receives 37 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 14 percent support, independent candidate Cornel West receives 3 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2 percent support.
Among independents in the five-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup, Biden receives 35 percent support, Trump receives 27 percent support, Kennedy receives 24 percent support, West receives 5 percent support, and Stein receives 5 percent support.
TITLE: Bloomberg poll: Biden losing ground to Trump on immigration
https://www.axios.com/2024/01/31/bloomberg-poll-biden-immigration-trump
EXCERPT: The percentage of voters who said immigration was the "single most important issue" to them in November went up in six of the seven swing states polled in a new Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey.
61% of those voters in those states say Biden is at least somewhat responsible for the wave of migration on the U.S.-Mexico border.
On the same question, 30% blamed the Trump administration and 38% blamed congressional Republicans.
Voters in those states say they trust Trump over Biden on immigration 52% to 30%. The 22 percentage point margin is up five points since the last poll in December.
Zoom in: Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are the seven states featured in the poll.
Asked how they would vote if the election were held today in a one-one-one matchup, Biden trails Trump by an average of 48%-42% across the seven states, which resembles other polls showing Biden lagging Trump in the key states.
The economy remained the most important issue in every state, but 51% said they trusted Trump to manage the economy compared to 33% for Biden.
Reality check: Voters were largely down on the economy as a whole, but were significantly more positive in their economic outlook when asked about their own states and communities.
Only 29% of voters in the poll said the US economy was on the "right direction," but 52% said the economy was on the "right direction" in their city or town – which they could credit Biden for by November.
TITLE: Despite improved views of the economy, Biden’s ratings are unchanged
https://apnorc.org/projects/despite-improved-views-of-the-economy-bidens-ratings-are-unchanged/
EXCERPT: Most adults still consider the national economy to be in poor shape, but there has been a slight increase in those who have a positive opinion. However, this improvement in the view of the economy has not translated into an improvement in President Biden’s approval ratings.
Thirty-five percent say the national economy is good, up slightly from 30% in an AP-NORC poll conducted in December and 24% in January 2023. The economy is seen as poor by 65%, down from 69% in December and 76% a year ago. Both Democrats and Republicans are more likely to describe the economy as good compared with last January. But, while 58% of Democrats now have a positive opinion of the economy, only 15% of Republicans agree.
Thirty-eight percent approve of Biden’s job performance, including 70% of Democrats and just 7% of Republicans. The public has similar opinions about how the president is handling foreign policy in general, and specifically relations with China, as well as the economy.
Biden’s approval on both his overall job as president and his handling of the economy are similar to the last several months, with his rating on the economy remaining below 40%.
